A living document. Arguments for AI-driven extinction and utopian transcendence, weighed by Bayesian posterior. The bar reflects the current balance of evidence.
The percentage isn't a simple vote count. It's a Bayesian posterior probability — the answer to: "Given all the evidence on this page, how likely is utopian ascendence vs. apocalypse?"
How it works
We start with a prior of 50/50 — no opinion. Each argument updates the odds using Bayes' theorem in odds form:
posterior odds = prior odds × LR1 × LR2 × …
Where LR is the likelihood ratio — how strongly that piece of evidence shifts the balance.
Weight → Likelihood Ratio
WeightLabelLR
1Minor point1.2×
2Solid argument1.5×
3Fundamental2×
Why Bayesian?
Simple averaging treats a minor nitpick the same as a civilisation-shaping force. Bayesian updating lets strong evidence dominate — a single fundamental argument can outweigh many minor ones, just as it should when reasoning about existential outcomes.